A strange thing has been happening in global markets over the past month or so. As the U.S. recovery gathers pace, the U.S. stock market is beginning to outperform its high-growth global rivals.
While most investors — myself included — take it for granted that most global stock markets will outperform the United States year after year, that just may not turn out to be the case in 2010.
A quick glance at the 12-month charts, comparing the performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the U.S. S&P 500, confirms that the United States is now running neck and neck with red-hot global markets.
In fact, with a bit of a year-end rally, there is a slight chance that the U.S. market will have outperformed emerging markets this year.
S&P 500 Versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index
It turns out that as of about two weeks ago, the U.S. S&P 500 now actually is outperforming its high-profile BRIC rivals over the past 12 months.
S&P 500 Versus the MSCI BRIC Index
“Who’d have thunk it…?”
But investing in today’s media darlings has little to with making money in the financial markets. It turns out that the best places to make money over the long term are ignored — or even treated with distain — by the mainstream press.
Investing in the BRICs: Some Surprising Results
There’s no better example than China. While those who visit Shanghai and Beijing rave about China’s soaring skyscrapers and dynamic economy, you couldn’t tell all that from the performance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2010.
In fact, despite its recent rally, Shanghai’s index — carrying the millstone of inefficient Chinese state-owned enterprises — has underperformed the S&P 500 by a wide margin.
Going into the final stretch of 2010, Shanghai has lagged its U.S. rival by more than 20%.
S&P 500 Versus Shanghai Composite
That doesn’t mean some investors have not made money in the dozens of edgy, small-cap Chinese stocks that have come to market in 2010. And investors in theiShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund (FXI) will have eked out a small gain. But even as China has overtaken Japan as the world’s second-largest economy in 2010, Shanghai is likely to end up the worst-performing, major emerging market of 2010.
Brazil tells a similar story. After a relentless rise that far outpaced the United States for many years, Brazil’s Bovespa barely has finished in the black for 2010. In fact, if you are a U.S. dollar-based investor who invested in the iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ), you’ve actually lost money in 2010.
S&P 500 Versus iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ)
India is only slightly better. Although India’s stock market has outperformed the United States over the past 12 months, Mumbai and New York have run neck and neck over the last six months, with the race “too close to call.”
S&P 500 Versus BSE 30 Sensex
But it’s the final member of the BRICs, Russia, which is the most surprising.
Russia, after all, is the ultimate “hate country.” After the collapse of 1998, one investor famously declared: “I would rather eat nuclear waste than invest in Russia.” Jim Rogers and George Soros agreed with the assessment of Warren Buffett’s partner Charlie Munger, who said, “We don’t invest in kleptocracies.”
Yet for all of the bare-chested shenanigans of Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Moscow’s show trials and the country’s famous corruption , Russia has been by far the best investment among the BRICs over the past decade, clocking up a Warren Buffett-beating, 25%-plus annual returns since its collapse in 1998.
And it looks like Russia is just about to match that historical average in 2010 as well, comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 by a 2:1 margin.
S&P 500 Versus Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX)
Russia is the Top-Performing BRIC — Something Fishy?
Beyond the BRICs
The top-performing global stock markets of 2010 were in countries probably not on your radar screen. Although the final decision still is out on whether it was 2010’s #1 performer, one country stands out for its resilience throughout the year.
Earthquakes notwithstanding, free-market maven Chile — a long-standing recommendation in my trading service Global Bull Market Alert through the iShares MSCI Chile Investable Mkt Idx (ECH) — certainly will end up among the top-performing stock markets of 2010.
It’s worthwhile seeing how this small country has outperformed not only the U.S. S&P 500 over the past two years, but BRIC star Russia as well.
S&P 500 Versus iShares MSCI Chile Investable Mkt Idx (ECH)
and the Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX)
So, what’s the takeaway?
As China’s example shows, fast economic growth and growing heft in the global economy do not necessarily translate into top investment gains.
In China’s case, it’s been quite the opposite.
And it is highly ironic that it is the most corrupt and most hated market in the world that has delivered the best performance among the BRICs. And with a compound annual growth rate close to 25% per year, among the BRICs, no one comes close to Russia.
And it’s hard to argue with the numbers…
So, if you really want to turbo-charge your investment profits, ignore the headlines and expand your investment horizons beyond media darlings China, India and Brazil.
Your portfolio will thank you for it…